Reading Statistics



Here are two excerpts from a statistics book which illustrates how statistics can be distorted in the media, giving a different impression to the reader than facts actually show.  This was taken from the Instructor's Edition of A First Course in Business Statistics (eighth edition) by McClave, Benson, and Sincich, pages 17-19.
 
 

Chance

There are a few issues in the news that are not in some way statistical. Take one. Should motorcyclists be required by law to wear helmets?...In "The Case for NO Helmets" (New York Times, June 17, 1995), Dick Teresi, editor of a magazine for Harley-Davidson bikers argued that helmets may actually kill, since in collisions at speeds greater that 15 miles an hour the heavy helmet may protect the head but snap the spine. [Teresi] citing a "study," said "nine states without helmet laws had a lower fatality rate (3.05 deaths per 10,000 motorcycles) than those that mandated helmets (3.38)," and "in a survey of 2,500 [at a rally], 98% of the respondents opposed such laws."
    [The course instructor] asked: After reading this [New York Times] piece, do you think it is safer to ride a motorcycle without a helmet?  Do you think 98% might be a valid estimate of bikers who oppose helmet laws? What further statistical information would you like? [From Cohn, V. "Chance in college curriculum," AmStat News, Aug.-Sept. 1995, No. 223. p.2.]
 
 





A 20/20 View of Survey Results:  Fact or Fiction?


    Did you ever notice that, no matter where you stand on popular issues of the day, you can always find statistics or surveys to back up your point of view-whether to take vitamins, whether day care harms kids, or what foods can hurt you or save you? There is an endless flow of information to help you make decisions, but is this information accurate, unbiased? John Stossel decided to check that out, and you may be surprised to learn if the picture you're getting doesn't seem quite right, maybe it isn't.

    Barbara Walters gave this introduction to a March 31, 1995, segment of the popular prime-time ABC television program 20/20. The story is titled "Facts or Fiction?--Exposes of So-Called Surveys." One of the surveys investigated by ABC correspondent John Stossel compared the discipline problems experienced by teachers in the 1940s and those experienced today. The results: In the 1940s, teachers worried most about students talking in class, chewing gum, and running in the halls. Today, they worry most about being assaulted! This information was highly publicized in the print media-in daily newspapers, weekly magazines, Ann Landers' column, the Congressional Quarterly, and The Wall Street Journal, figures, including former first lady Barbara Bush and former Education secretary William Bennett.
    "Hearing this made me yearn for the old days when life was so much simpler and gentler, but was life that simple then?" asks Stossel. "Wasn't there juvenile delinquency [in the 1940s]? Is the survey true?" With the help of a Yale School of Management professor, Stossel found the original source of the teacher survey--Texas oilman T. Colin Davis--and discovered it wasn't a survey at all! Davis has simply identified certain disciplinary problems encountered by teachers in a conservative newsletter--a list he admitted was not obtained from a statistical survey, but from Davis' personal knowledge of the problems in the 1940s ("I was in school then") and his understanding of the problems today ("I read the papers").
    Stossel's critical thinking about the teacher "survey" led to the discovery of research that is misleading at best and unethical at worst.  Several more misleading (and possibly unethical) surveys were presented on the ABC program. Listed here, most of these were conducted by businesses or special interest groups with specific objectives in mind.
    The 20/20 segment ended with an interview of Cynthia Crossen, author of Tainted Truth, an expose of misleading and biased surveys. Crossen warns: "If everybody is misusing numbers and scaring us with numbers to get us to do something, however good [that something] is, we've lost the power of numbers. Now, we know certain things from research. For example, we know that smoking cigarettes is hard on your lungs and heart, and because we know that, many people's lives have been extended or saved. We don't want to lose the power of information to help us make decisions, and that's what I worry about."
 
 
 
Reported Information (Source) Actual Study Information
Eating oat bran is a cheap and easy way to reduce your cholesterol count. (Quaker Oats) Diet must consist of nothing but oat bran to achieve a slightly lower cholesterol count.
150,000 women a year die from anorexia. (Feminist group) Approximately 1,000 women a year die from problems that were likely caused by anorexia.
Domestic violence causes more birth defects than all medical issues combined. (March of Dimes) No study-false report.
Only 29% of high school girls are happy with themselves, compared to 66% of elementary school girls. (American Association of University Women) Of 3,000 high school girls 29% responded "Always true" to the statement, "I am happy the way I am." Most answered, "Sort of true" and "Sometimes true."
One in four American children under age 12 is hungry or at risk of hunger. (Food research and Action Center) Based on responses to the questions: "Do you ever cut the size of meals?" "Do you ever eat less than you feel you should?" "Did you ever rely on limited numbers of foods to feed your children because you were running out of money to buy food for a meal?"